From britdisc-owner@csv.warwick.ac.uk  Wed Jun 28 11:24:51 2000
Received: (from daemon@localhost)
	by pansy.csv.warwick.ac.uk (8.10.1/8.9.3) id e5SAODR01945
	for britdisc-outgoing; Wed, 28 Jun 2000 11:24:13 +0100 (BST)
Received: from snowdrop.csv.warwick.ac.uk (root@snowdrop [137.205.192.31])
	by pansy.csv.warwick.ac.uk (8.10.1/8.9.3) with ESMTP id e5SAOBe01927
	for <britdisc@csv.warwick.ac.uk>; Wed, 28 Jun 2000 11:24:11 +0100 (BST)
Received: from venus.open.ac.uk (venus.open.ac.uk [137.108.143.2])
	by snowdrop.csv.warwick.ac.uk (8.10.1/8.9.3) with ESMTP id e5SAOBY03277
	for <britdisc@csv.warwick.ac.uk>; Wed, 28 Jun 2000 11:24:11 +0100 (BST)
Received: from damson.open.ac.uk by venus with SMTP Local (Mailer 3.01);
          Wed, 28 Jun 2000 11:24:10 +0100
Received: from 173049.open.ac.uk by damson.open.ac.uk (4.1/SMI-4.1) id AA08010;
          Wed, 28 Jun 00 11:24:09 BST
Message-Id: <10006281024.AA08010@damson.open.ac.uk>
From: Peter Connor <p.m.connor@open.ac.uk>
To: britdisc@csv.warwick.ac.uk
Date: Wed, 28 Jun 2000 11:24:03 +0100
Mime-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=US-ASCII
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT
Subject: Re: Tour 4
In-Reply-To: <003d01bfe08a$3c4f4580$3488bc3e@oemcomputer>
X-Mailer: Pegasus Mail for Win32 (v3.01b)
Sender: owner-britdisc@warwick.ac.uk
Precedence: bulk

I've been looking at the maths for this (I'm writing my thesis and 
any procrastination is good procrastination) and I'm not entirely 
convinced that Catch are already condemned to the bottom 8.
Looking at results from T3 then the top 11 stand as 

1)  UTI 705
2)  DB 702
3)  CAF 662
4)  DSM 573
5)  Hammer 550
6)  Druids   543
7)  Red   525
8)  HR   490
9)  BAF  481
10) Fusion  480
11) C22   440

Thus Catch are only 50 points behind the 8th placed team (if my 
figures are correct - I'm sure someone will put me right if they're 
not), if they finish top 4 Headrush will need to come in ninth to 
force a draw in which case I think Headrush go through on the geo 
team rule (are Catch geo?), it should be noted that Headrush have 
come 10th twice this season in the 3 tours so far (and 6th once).  
Naturally if Catch come higher than 4th then they have so much 
more of a safety margin.  Catch I think can still go through but it 
will depend on the results of others as well as on their own results, 
but the same can be said for most of the rest of the top 12.  There 
are other teams also charging for that final place and lots of 
potential for a tie for 8th.  All the more reason for deciding what to 
do about Catch before T4, I can't imagine any team drawing with 
them is going to be happy to be told they're not in the top 8 on the 
basis that Catch are 'known' to be the better team.

Peter Connor
Red (but speaking for myself)

> I haven't done any calculations on how likely it is that we (Catch 22) will get enough points to finish in the top 8 - can't do much about it now.
> If it is (as it sounds from Kev Lowe) unlikely that we can make the top 8 then I think a decision before Tour 4 would probably be most welcome for all the teams concerned.
> 
> I don't see any value in my trying to make a case.
> 
> Si - Catch 22
> 
> 
>